More than half of likely Utah voters oppose Amendment B, a statewide constitutional measure on the Nov. 3 ballot.

A Noble Predictive Insights poll released Thursday, Oct. 29, found 56% of likely voters would vote no on Amendment B. Just 34% support it. Another 10% remain undecided.

The measure would require at least 60% voter approval for citizen-proposed laws that increase taxes, replacing the current simple-majority threshold.

Sharp reversal since September

The numbers represent a dramatic shift. ABC4 reported that the poll marks a 22-point swing from September, when half of those polled supported the amendment. The Salt Lake Tribune reported that a September poll by the same firm found only 21% of Utahns opposed the change at that time, while 50% were in favor.

The poll was conducted Oct. 26-27 and surveyed 527 likely Utah voters by text-to-online. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.27 percentage points.

Opposition crosses party lines

Amendment B trails among all three major party groups, according to the poll. Democrats oppose it 82% to 11%. Independents oppose it 58% to 29%. Even Republicans oppose it 48% to 42%.

"Amendment B has a coalition problem," Mike Noble, CEO and founder of Noble Predictive Insights, said. "Democrats and independents oppose it, and even Republicans are more likely to vote no than yes. It's hard to build a winning coalition when you're trailing in every party."

Both sides weigh in

Scott Cuthbertson, a spokesperson for the Vote No Campaign, said voters are changing their minds as they learn more about the measure.

"They may have heard of something about what Amendment B is, but people didn't really understand it, but people have started taking the time to start thinking about what we are really signing up for here," Cuthbertson said, according to ABC4.

Cuthbertson also argued that lawmakers themselves are not subject to the higher threshold when they create laws.

Robert Axson, chairman of the Utah Republican Party, said he is concerned the shift in voter sentiment came from out-of-state money hoping to change policy in Utah. He argued the amendment is needed to protect Utah taxpayers.

"It merely says that if we're going to do something as severe as raising taxes on Utah families, it should be broadly supported rather than just a majority plus one," Axson said, according to ABC4.

Millions spent on the fight

The spending gap between the two sides is wide. Utahns Protecting Our Constitution, the main group opposing Amendment B, spent more than $3 million on mailers, radio, television and social media ads, the Tribune reported. More than half of that money came from The Fairness Project, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

On the other side, Heather Andrews, Utah director for Americans for Prosperity, told the Tribune about $100,000 of her group's spending went toward passing the amendment. Taxpayer Shield PAC, formed by the Utah Taxpayers Association, spent about $20,000.

The opposition group said 80% of its donors are from Utah, though financial disclosures show those in-state donors account for about one in five dollars raised, the Tribune reported.

Ballots must be received by county clerks by 8 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3.